@Stuart Weenig In our case (and likely in Kirby's case, as evidenced by his statement that he sends a ping along the tunnel), our tunnels are going idle, due to no traffic traversing them. There is a way to configure keepalives to keep the tunnels active, but that takes some configuration, and I'm not 100% it's always supported by the remote endpoints?
It's always possible there is an OID that I've simply never been able to find that reports this 'Down reason,' but I'm going to guess there's a decent chance that your circumstances (a backup device) might be different (though, still helpful!).